2025 is wrapping up, and for many Canadians, it’s been a long, expensive, unpredictable year.
But here’s the good news: the 2026 mortgage outlook is shaping up to be one of the most opportunity-filled periods we’ve had in a while.
And this is true for homeowners, buyers, and anyone renewing a mortgage.
Rates are lower, 1-2 more cuts are expected, and the shifting market is giving Canadians the chance to reset, rebuild, and rethink their strategies. Whether you’re entering a renewal year, considering a refinance, or planning a purchase, now is the time to prepare.
This 2026 Mortgage Playbook will walk you through what’s coming, what to expect, and what you can do right now to get ahead.
Understanding the 2026 Market: What the Outlook Shows
The big picture is simple:
👉 Rates are expected to come down at least a bit more in 2026
👉 Fixed rates and variable rates will behave differently, but overall they’re stable
👉 Renewals will be one of the biggest financial events of the year for many households (record numbers)
👉 Home equity remains one of the strongest financial tools Canadians have
Economic conditions are stabilizing, inflation remains close to target, and bond yields (which impact fixed mortgage rates) have been trending lower. This creates a more forgiving environment for homeowners and new buyers.
Bottom line:
The 2026 mortgage outlook suggests a year where Canadians can finally make proactive, strategic moves again rather than reacting to rising rates.
(RE/MAX envisions a pretty healthy housing market next year)
Fixed vs Variable: Which Makes More Sense in 2026?
This will be one of the most important decisions Canadians make this year. And honestly? There’s no “perfect” answer. It really depends on your goals, your timeline, and your comfort level.
Here’s the quick breakdown:
Fixed Rates
Fixed rates offer stability. Your payment stays the same for the entire term, which can be comforting, especially after the volatility of the past few years (and with rates now close to their lows).
But fixed rates also come with higher penalties if you need to break early.
Fixed can make sense if you:
✔️ Want predictability
✔️ Don’t expect to move or refinance early
✔️ Prefer the safety of consistent payments
Variable Rates
Variable rates move with your lender’s prime rate. When rates drop, you benefit. Now that we’re near the bottom of the rate drops, a variable rate isn’t as appetizing (unless you get a good one).
Variable can make sense if you
✔️ Want to take advantage of falling rate
✔️ Care about flexibilit
✔️ Want lower break penaltie
✔️ Are comfortable with some movement
Just being honest:
The best choice isn’t about timing the market, it’s about what fits your life.
How to Prepare for a 2026 Renewal
2026 is shaping up to be a massive renewal year. If your mortgage comes due in 2026, your renewal will likely be one of the biggest financial moments of your year.
Here’s what to do:
✔️ Start Early (6–12 months ahead)
Most Canadians wait until they receive their renewal letter. That’s too late.
Starting early opens the door to better rates, better terms, and more negotiation power.
✔️ Don’t sign the first offer
Your lender’s first offer is almost never their best one. You have options, so use them.
✔️ Consider your goals
Do you want lower payments?
Do you want to access equity?
Do you plan to move?
Do you want to shorten or lengthen your amortization
Your renewal is the perfect time to re-shape your entire mortgage strategy.
✔️ Compare fixed vs variable again
The right choice at renewal might not be the same one from five years ago.
Markets change. Your life changes. Your mortgage should change with you.
Why Home Equity Will Be a Key Advantage in 2026
If you’re a homeowner, your equity is one of your most powerful financial tools.
Here’s why equity matters so much going into 2026:
1. Equity builds your wealth
Rates help your monthly budget… but equity builds your net worth.
When home values rise, your wealth rises (even while you’re relaxing and enjoying the holidays).
2. Equity gives you options
A strong equity position means you can:
✔️ Refinance
✔️ Consolidate high-interest debt
✔️ Renovate
✔️ Invest
✔️ Purchase a second property
✔️ Reduce financial stress overnight
3. Equity protects your future
Markets change. Life changes.
Higher equity gives you a cushion when things shift unexpectedly.
4. Rates move, equity stays.
Rates fluctuate daily. But once you’ve gained equity, it’s yours to leverage.
Mortgage Planning for Homeowners: What to Do Before 2026 Arrives
If you want to get ahead, here’s where to start:
✔️ Do a mortgage check-up
Once a year, minimum. No better time than the start of 2026.
Rates, equity, debt load, renewal dates: it all changes over time. A check-up gives you clarity.
✔️ Review your debts
Credit cards and lines of credit hit hard in 2025 for many Canadians. Rolling them into a lower-interest mortgage can free up significant cash flow.
✔️ Check your credit
Your credit score influences your rates & lender options. Even a small bump can save thousands over the term.
✔️ Decide your 2026 goals
Buying? Refinancing Renewing? Improving cash flow?
Knowing your goals early changes everything.
✔️ Ask questions early
Waiting never helps. Planning always does.
What Buyers Should Expect in 2026
If you’re planning to buy this year, the 2026 mortgage outlook gives you a few advantages:
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Lower rates improve affordability
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Pre-approvals help you shop with confidence
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The First Home Savings Account (FHSA) and RRSP contributions are major tools
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Spring and summer markets are expected to be competitive
The earlier you prepare, the better your results will be.
The Bottom Line: 2026 Will Reward the Prepared
2026 isn’t about waiting for the “perfect moment.” It’s about making smart moves, early moves, and informed moves.
Whether you’re renewing, refinancing, planning to buy, or simply wanting to improve cash flow, the opportunities are real (but you need a plan to take advantage of them).
And that’s where I can help.
If you want a personalized breakdown of your 2026 mortgage strategy, send me a message.
I’ll walk you through everything in simple terms so you can go into the new year confident and informed.
First Home Savings Account (FHSA)